Written for Bacon’s Rebellion by James A. Bacon

We all know by now that the 2020-21 school year, in which most schools resorted to remote or hybrid learning in response to the COVID pandemic, was a disaster for Virginia students. The big question was whether the current, 2021-22 school year would see a recovery in learning, as measured by standardized test scores, as students returned to in-person learning. An early verdict is in: students are continuing to lose ground.

Indeed, based on reading- and math-assessment data published by Renaissance Learning Inc., Virginia is showing greater learning loss this year compared to last year than any other state except New Mexico — minus 9% for math and minus 3% for reading.

With no great pleasure do I remind readers that I predicted last fall the possibility that the performance of Virginia students might continue to deteriorate. Teachers were challenged with the task not only of teaching the current grade but with helping students catch up on material they had failed to master in the previous grade. Also, it was evident early in the fall that schools were experiencing more disorder and classroom disruption than in pre-COVID years. Another risk factor I cited was the priority given by many school boards to implementing policies and practices informed by social-justice theory, such as the removal of School Resource Officers. Along the way, I cited test results based on grade K-2 assessments and other evidence in support of my thesis.

The Renaissance Learning report, “How Kids Are Performing: A Snapshot of K-12 Academic Performance and Growth,” provides the most comprehensive data yet. And it leaves no room for doubt. Learning loss arising from COVID-related policies in Virginia is the worst in the country (excepting only New Mexico). The response of the Northam administration and uber-Woke school boards to COVID created a collapse in learning that may have no precedent in the history of standardized test scores. 

The Renaissance Learning report provides some hope that the rate of decline is decelerating — students are falling behind at a less rapid pace as the year wears on. Winter assessments were less disastrous nationally than assessments taken in the fall. (I could find no figures for Virginia specifically.) But given the likelihood that the vast majority of students will be socially promoted at the end of this year, it’s an open question whether they can ever catch up. If their learning doesn’t recover this year, what hope is there for their learning to get back on pace after two years of decline?

Virginia school officials blame everyone but themselves. It’s COVID’s fault. It’s the teacher shortage. It’s racism. It’s not enough money. What pathetic excuse-mongering. Every state grapples with the very same issues. The truth is that the Northam administration was uniquely awful. And now, with teachers unions in several districts being given the right to bargain collectively, there is every reason to worry that conditions will deteriorate even more. 

According to the national data, reading declines were worst between kindergarten and third grade, but meaningful in all grades. (Only 5th grade had recovered to the same level of proficiency as the abysmal 2020-21 school year.) The decline in math was dismal across all grades nationally in the fall tests, and had recovered significantly this winter in the lower grades. But the loss continued without let-up for grades 8 through 12. Again, no Virginia-specific figures were available. All we know is that Virginia students’ math performance was far worse than the national average.

Concludes Renaissance Learning: “Time is of the essence in catching students up. Changes in overall student performance will not be mitigated until we are able to achieve above-typical growth … over multiple seasons. Now more than ever, we need to prioritize instruction on skills that are most essential for progress.”

Given the education establishment’s resistance to every change the Youngkin administration is trying to make, I don’t hold out much hope for a turnaround. In a normal world, we at least could count on the media to sound the warning. But Virginia’s mainstream media is in deep, deep denial, reporting none of this. I can conclude only that editors and reporters have consciously decided not to provide any ammunition that might support Youngkin’s reform agenda. We’ve got a long, hard slog ahead. The future of Virginia’s children is at stake.