Would Someone Please Explain the “Science”?

Written for Bacon’s Rebellion by James A. Bacon

COVID positivity rates for students (left) and employees (right). Source: UVa COVID Tracker.

Let me get this straight. The University of Virginia has just announced that all students returning to the university starting July 1 must be fully vaccinated, or they will be barred from entering the grounds. But employees, while urged to get vaccinated, are under no such mandate.

Exemptions will be allowed for individuals on medical or religions grounds, but those without vaccinations will be required to be tested multiple times per week.

“This approach will enable our students to return to a residential academic setting where they can live, study, and gather together safely,” reads an email signed by President Jim Ryan, Provost Liz Magill, and other senior administrators, according to UVA Today.

UVA Today, the mouthpiece for the Ryan administration, gave no explanation of why students, who are younger and more resistant to the virus, are required to be vaccinated, while employees, who are older and more vulnerable, are not.

COVID spread in Virginia is rapidly declining. At the University of Virginia itself, there were zero cases reported for students last week, and only one per week for the previous three weeks, according to the university’s COVID Tracker. (See the graphs above.)

It is true that the 20- to 29-year-old age bracket, which overlaps with the student population, has experienced a disproportionate share of COVID-19 cases reported across Virginia.

Source: Virginia Department of Health

Young people, believing themselves (correctly) to be at lower risk for adverse medical consequences, have been more cavalier about protecting themselves and, as a result, have been more likely to get the coronavirus. On the other hand, their hospitalization rate is far lower than for older age brackets. Out of the total 29,400 hospitalizations in Virginia, fewer than 1,600 have been for Virginians under the age of 30.

Source: Virginia Department of Health

And the number of deaths for Virginians under 30 barely registers — 27 of the state’s 11,074 total.

Source: Virginia Department of Health

Clearly, college students are at extremely low risk of hospitalization and death compared to older faculty and staff. Perhaps there are good reasons to mandate student vaccinations based on the ever-shifting “science,” Centers for Disease Control guidance, and executive orders handed down by Governor Ralph Northam, but those reasons are not readily apparent from data available to the public.

The Ryan letter said that the university would “monitor” employee vaccination rates and “consult” with public health experts about whether it would require vaccines for all employees. But no criteria for requiring a mandate were given.

Bacon’s bottom line: Could the decision have had nothing to do with science at all? Could it have been driven by internal university politics? I am speculating here. but consider…

With the return to full in-person learning and living for students, notes the UVA Today article, many UVA employees also will need to work in-person. “Many who directly support our missions of teaching, research, service, and patient care will need to be physically present,” wrote Ryan, Magill, et al.

The inescapable implication is that many employees and/or faculty will not return to work on the grounds.

This sounds like something that only the teacher’s union could think up. COVID spread in the community is rapidly declining. COVID cases at UVa have dropped to zero. A significant share of the population has been double-vaccinated, and hundreds of thousands more Virginians likely have recovered from the virus and acquired temporary immunity. Virginia is approaching herd immunity. And anyone who wants to get vaccinated can easily do so. There is virtually zero risk for employees to return to work.

But, it seems that many UVa employees like working at home. Ryan & Co. didn’t come out and say so, but how else do we understand statements like this in the UVA Today article:

Leaders acknowledged that the past year of remote work has offered some lessons in flexible working arrangements. … “We do want to acknowledge that our adaption to new ways of working during the pandemic has taught us valuable lessons about how to creatively approach our work in the future.”

Look, I’m not an anti-masker or an anti-vaxxer. I’m double vaccinated and still wear a mask in places of commerce just so other people don’t wig out. But I’d still like to see the “science” or the data behind the seemingly illogical double standard for students and employees. Until I do, I’m operating on the assumption that Ryan buckled to pressure from the university’s internal constituencies.

Update: Similar moves are afoot at James Madison University and the College of William & Mary. The JMU Faculty Senate passed a resolution calling for a student vaccination requirement, says WSVA. Also the JMU board’s executive committee has given president Jonathan Alger the authority to require students and faculty to be tested and vaccinated. No justification for the mandate given.

W&M has announced it will require all students, faculty and staff to receive the vaccinations, reports the Virginia Gazette. “Given the public health context that we anticipate for fall 2021, and given what we currently know about the science of COVID-19, our success next year depends on widespread vaccination,” said President Katharine Rowe. No details of what, exactly, the science says. Give W&M credit for one thing: At least it’s applying the mandate to everyone.