Virginia Beach: Notoriously Hard To Poll

Polling is an inexact “science." In fact, it shouldn’t be called a science at all. I say this as someone who graduated with a BA in political science and who always found the “s” word amusing when applied to my area of undergraduate studies.

We’ve seen polls that once the votes were tallied proved to be surprisingly accurate. And many more polls that were wildly wrong.

Here’s an example: In October of 2016 a poll conducted by the polling organization at Christopher Newport University purported to show an “even split” between supporters and opponents of extending light rail into Virginia Beach.

That proposed rail project was a boondoggle, pushed almost entirely by developers and their political cronies. It would have cost taxpayers an estimated $100 million a mile and studies showed the extended line would not alleviate traffic congestion in Hampton Roads. At all.

The poll was commissioned by 13 News, The Virginian-Pilot and Christopher Newport University. Results showed that 48% of likely voters supported light rail and 48% opposed.

Luckily, Election Day told a different story. The referendum to extend the rail project into Virginia Beach lost in a landslide: 57.09% to 42.91.

Why bring up old news now? Because another poll by the same organization made headlines again last week showing the Congressional race for the 2nd District seat tied! The CNU poll reported 45% support for incumbent Democrat Elaine Luria and 45% support for Republican Jen Kiggans.

Another even split.

With predictions earlier this year about a “red wave” headed for Washington, this poll no doubt gave Luria supporters encouragement. They may believe that Luria can buck the national trend in House races and be re-elected.

And no doubt Kiggans supporters were discouraged by the news. After all, they nominated a candidate with an impressive resume: Kiggans is a Navy helicopter pilot, a geriatrics nurse practitioner and she already holds elected office as a member of the Virginia State Senate.

Beyond that, the 2nd district was redrawn, making it more Republican than it was during the last congressional election, with the bulk of voters residing in Virginia Beach.

They can’t be blamed for believing Kiggans should be well ahead.

I would urge voters in the 2nd district to study the history of polling in Hampton Roads - especially in Virginia Beach - and compare the results of this one with actual results on November 9th.

A science experiment, if you will.

After all, Election Day polls are the only ones that count.