Why Independent Women Will Vote for Donald Trump
You may be shocked to know that recent news reports reveal that the gender gap between Trump and Harris is narrowing. Further, polls show that significantly fewer women support Harris than supported Biden in 2020.
How can it be that women — including college-educated, suburban women — will vote for Trump?
First, the most important issue for women is not abortion. If you review polling data carefully, the top issue for women under 30 is abortion. And, for that demographic, only 39% say that abortion is their top issue. The top issue for all women, including young women, is the economy, particularly inflation. For most women, Trump has successfully addressed their abortion concerns by stating clearly and repeatedly that he supports the “three exceptions”: rape, incest, and life of the mother. And although, as Nikki Haley long ago explained, there is no chance that a national abortion ban will ever garner enough support in Congress to reach a president’s desk, Trump has also clarified that he will not sign a national abortion ban. This takes abortion out of play for many independent women.
Second, as to the actual top issue for women — the economy — Trump outperforms Harris by wide margins. Recent reports that the economy is booming are not resonating. In fact, the reports may backfire among independent women. While stock market gains are the key economic win for the Biden-Harris administration — these gains disproportionately help the rich, particularly rich men. Women, who, more often than not, manage everyday household expenses, are more attuned to rising prices for groceries, gas, and consumer goods, not to mention home prices. And these prices are up double digits from 2020. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign continues to discuss large government programs that may further stimulate the economy — perhaps good for the stock market but potentially bad for inflation. Harris touts that inflation is rising less than it was. But women want a return to lower prices, not slower inflation growth.
Third, and another jarring statistic — women are far more concerned, as much as five or six times as concerned, about immigration and border security than another safety issue Harris discusses on the campaign trail: gun control. Women are sympathetic to families displaced by war, famine, and persecution. But they have little sympathy for the able-bodied adult men seen illegally crossing the border in en masse. High profile crimes against women by immigrant men, many of whom are known criminals, has further turned their sentiment. And the “kids in cages” narrative has been largely forgotten, while the missing and exploited children and human trafficking narrative has become quite alarming.
Finally, Trump appears more engaged in women’s issues in this election than the last two elections. He recently decided to participate in a town hall consisting of exclusively female voters. As noted, he has been much more pro-active about abortion messaging. And he has been assisted by more Republican women than the last elections, including the popular Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Republican National Committee (RNC) co-Chair Lara Trump, New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, and numerous grassroots organizers. Just last month, a women’s group in Virginia — a blue state — organized 2,000 women to support Trump at his Charlottesville winery — an event he didn’t even attend. Women are not hiding their support for Trump this time around.
So, don’t be stunned if Trump manages to win against a female candidate for the second time — carrying even more women with him this year than in 2016.
Ms. Stewart is an intellectual property attorney in Washington, D.C., and the former Deputy Attorney General of Virginia for Health, Education, and Social Services.
