Impeachment: End of Trump? End of Biden? Or Both?

No sooner had the votes been tallied in the 2016 presidential election than some disgruntled Democrats began to whisper about impeachment.

All they needed was a reason.

So they were giddy during the Stormy Daniel dust-up. They flocked to the border for photo ops during the kids-in-cages stories. Finally, they believed that the Russian collusion investigation was enough to topple the president..

All fizzled. Hopes of overturning the election results were dashed.

Now they have the Ukraine phone call. And a whistleblower complaint about the Ukraine phone call from someone who reportedly did not actually hear the Ukraine phone call.

Without waiting for the transcript of the conversation, which the White House promised would be released today, or for the complete whistleblower complaint, also on its way, breathless Democrats are moving forward.

After three years of trying to tamp down talk of impeachment, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday caved to the radical lefties in her party, announcing that the House was opening an “official impeachment inquiry.”

Question is, who will sustain the most damage over the next few weeks: the president or Joe Biden, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination?

Political prognostication is a fool’s game. I have no more idea where all this is headed than anyone else. Mostly because I have no information about what’s in the documents that the White House is about to release.

Then again, neither do the Democrats who are already launching an impeachment inquiry.

If history is any predictor, Trump’s supporters will react to the transcript as they did to the Mueller report and declare it a big nothing. Trump’s opponents will see high crimes and misdemeanors..

“Impeachment” by Nick Youngson CC BY-SA 3.0 Alpha Stock Images

One thing seems certain, Biden is likely to be a casualty of the impeachment investigation. His son’s appointment to the board of the Ukrainian Burisma Gas Company in the spring of 2014 while he was vice president, is not a good look. The fact that Hunter Biden pulled down $50,000 a month while his dad was working with Ukraine on behalf of the US government looks a lot like influence peddling. 

Oh, and Biden pressuring the Ukraine government to sack the prosecutor investigating Burisma Gas while he was VP and while his kid was on the board doesn’t pass the smell test.

As this story unfolds we’ll learn what was actually said by Trump in his July phone conversation with the president of Ukraine. If there was an explicit quid pro quo, if foreign aid was tied to an investigation into Hunter Biden, the impeachment process will gain support.

At the same time we may also learn why the younger Biden - a man with a troubling history of alcohol and drug abuse - was really appointed to the lucrative position on the Burisma board.

Of course the far left wants Biden out of the race, so any collateral damage to the former veep would be seen as a win for them.

If the 2020 election draws near and the Democrats appear to have put all their collective energy into impeachment - the president, Justice Kavanaugh and Lord knows who else - it could backfire.

Remember, the Republicans overplayed their hand when they impeached Bill Clinton in 1998, knowing that the Senate would not vote to remove him from office. By the time Clinton left office after two terms, he was fairly popular. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich who led the impeachment efforts was not.